Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?

Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm's body temperature (Tb) affects its performance or fitness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key – but often biologically unreasonable – assumptions underlying...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Ecology letters 2016-11, Vol.19 (11), p.1372-1385
Main Authors: Sinclair, Brent J., Marshall, Katie E., Sewell, Mary A., Levesque, Danielle L., Willett, Christopher S., Slotsbo, Stine, Dong, Yunwei, Harley, Christopher D. G., Marshall, David J., Helmuth, Brian S., Huey, Raymond B.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adaptation, Physiological
Animals
Body temperature
Body Temperature Regulation
Climate Change
Ecology
Environment
fitness
Models, Biological
Physiology
Temperature
thermal performance
thermal variability
Time Factors
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Summary:Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm's body temperature (Tb) affects its performance or fitness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key – but often biologically unreasonable – assumptions underlying this approach; for example, that physiology and thermal regimes are invariant over ontogeny, space and time, and also that TPCs are independent of previously experienced Tb. We show how a critical consideration of these assumptions can lead to biologically useful hypotheses and experimental designs. For example, rather than assuming that TPCs are fixed during ontogeny, one can measure TPCs for each major life stage and incorporate these into stage‐specific ecological models to reveal the life stage most likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Our overall goal is to explicitly examine the assumptions underlying the integration of TPCs with Tb, to develop a framework within which empiricists can place their work within these limitations, and to facilitate the application of thermal physiology to understanding the biological implications of climate change.
ISSN:1461-023X
1461-0248
DOI:10.1111/ele.12686