Multi-factor, multi-state, multi-model scenarios: Exploring food and climate futures for Southeast Asia

Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios to...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental modelling & software : with environment data news 2016-09, Vol.83, p.255-270
Main Authors: Mason-D'Croz, Daniel, Vervoort, Joost, Palazzo, Amanda, Islam, Shahnila, Lord, Steven, Helfgott, Ariella, Havlík, Petr, Peou, Rathana, Sassen, Marieke, Veeger, Marieke, van Soesbergen, Arnout, Arnell, Andrew P., Stuch, Benjamin, Arslan, Aslihan, Lipper, Leslie
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agriculture and food security
Climate
Climate change
Computer programs
Driver analysis
Economic factors
Foods
Impact analysis
Multi-model ensembles
Multi-stakeholder scenarios
Policies
Social aspects
Southeast Asia
Vietnam
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Summary:Decision-makers aiming to improve food security, livelihoods and resilience are faced with an uncertain future. To develop robust policies they need tools to explore the potential effects of uncertain climatic, socioeconomic, and environmental changes. Methods have been developed to use scenarios to present alternative futures to inform policy. Nevertheless, many of these can limit the possibility space with which decision-makers engage. This paper will present a participatory scenario process that maintains a large possibility space through the use of multiple factors and factor-states and a multi-model ensemble to create and quantify four regional scenarios for Southeast Asia. To do this we will explain 1) the process of multi-factor, multi-state building was done in a stakeholder workshop in Vietnam, 2) the scenario quantification and model results from GLOBIOM and IMPACT, two economic models, and 3) how the scenarios have already been applied to diverse policy processes in Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam. •We developed 4 multi-factor, multi-state socio-economic scenarios for Southeast Asia.•Diverse scenarios provide wide possibility space for testing of robust policies.•Quantifying scenarios in multiple models is challenging but increases scenario robustness.•Using multiple model increases the scenario possibility space.
ISSN:1364-8152
1873-6726
DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.05.008