Response of lightning NO sub( x ) emissions and ozone production to climate change: Insights from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project

Results from an ensemble of models are used to investigate the response of lightning nitrogen oxide emissions to climate change and the consequent impacts on ozone production. Most models generate lightning using a parameterization based on cloud top height. With this approach and a present-day glob...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2016-05, Vol.43 (10), p.5492-5500
Main Authors: Finney, D L, Doherty, R M, Wild, O, Young, P J, Butler, A
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmospheric models
Climate change
Climate models
Lightning
Nitrogen oxides
Ozone
Parametrization
Surface temperature
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Summary:Results from an ensemble of models are used to investigate the response of lightning nitrogen oxide emissions to climate change and the consequent impacts on ozone production. Most models generate lightning using a parameterization based on cloud top height. With this approach and a present-day global emission of 5 TgN, we estimate a linear response with respect to changes in global surface temperature of +0.44 plus or minus 0.05 TgN K super(-1). However, two models using alternative approaches give +0.14 and -0.55 TgN K super(-1) suggesting that the simulated response is highly dependent on lightning parameterization. Lightning NO sub(x) is found to have an ozone production efficiency of 6.5 plus or minus 4.7 times that of surface NO sub(x) sources. This wide range of efficiencies across models is partly due to the assumed vertical distribution of the lightning source and partly to the treatment of nonmethane volatile organic compound (NMVOC) chemistry. Careful consideration of the vertical distribution of emissions is needed, given its large influence on ozone production. Key Points * Lightning emissions respond linearly to global mean surface temperature change across a range of climate-chemistry models * The response of lightning to climate change is strongly dependent on the lightning parameterization used * Ozone production from lightning NO sub(x) is 6.5 times more efficient than surface NO sub(x), but there is large variation across models
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1002/2016GL068825