A Less Cloudy Future: The Role of Subtropical Subsidence in Climate Sensitivity

A Less Cloudy Future: The Role of Subtropical Subsidence in Climate Sensitivity

An observable constraint on climate sensitivity, based on variations in mid-tropospheric relative humidity (RH) and their impact on clouds, is proposed. We show that the tropics and subtropics are linked by teleconnections that induce seasonal RH variations that relate strongly to albedo (via clouds...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Science (American Association for the Advancement of Science) 2012-11, Vol.338 (6108), p.792-794
Main Authors: Fasullo, John T., Trenberth, Kevin E.
Format: Article
Language:eng
Subjects:
Albedo
Arid zones
Atmospheric chemistry
Atmospheric models
Climate
Climate change
Climate models
Climate science
Climatic zones
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
Clouds
Correlations
Earth, ocean, space
Estimates
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Mathematical models
Meteorology
Modeling
Relative humidity
Seasonal variations
Subsidence
Subtropics
Uncertainty
Weather forecasting
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:An observable constraint on climate sensitivity, based on variations in mid-tropospheric relative humidity (RH) and their impact on clouds, is proposed. We show that the tropics and subtropics are linked by teleconnections that induce seasonal RH variations that relate strongly to albedo (via clouds), and that this covaliability is mimicked in a warming climate. A present-day analog for future trends is thus identified whereby the intensity of subtropical dry zones in models associated with the boreal monsoon is strongly linked to projected cloud trends, reflected solar radiation, and model sensitivity. Many models, particularly those with low climate sensitivity, fail to adequately resolve these teleconnections and hence are identifiably biased. Improving model fidelity in matching observed variations provides a viable path forward for better predicting future climate.
ISSN:0036-8075
1095-9203