Earthquake vulnerability of school buildings: Probabilistic structural fragility analyses

The study presents probabilistic structural fragility assessment of public school buildings in Istanbul, which were constructed based on a standardized/typical project. The typical structure is a four-story, reinforced concrete shear wall building with moment resisting frames. Derivation of fragilit...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Soil dynamics and earthquake engineering (1984) 2014-12, Vol.67, p.169-178
Main Authors: Hancilar, Ufuk, Çaktı, Eser, Erdik, Mustafa, Franco, Guillermo E., Deodatis, George
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Buildings
Computer simulation
Construction
Earthquake vulnerability
Fragility
Istanbul
Mathematical models
Mean damage ratio
Monte Carlo simulation
Nonlinear dynamic analysis
Probabilistic fragility analysis
Reinforcing steels
School buildings
Uncertainty
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Summary:The study presents probabilistic structural fragility assessment of public school buildings in Istanbul, which were constructed based on a standardized/typical project. The typical structure is a four-story, reinforced concrete shear wall building with moment resisting frames. Derivation of fragility functions rely on nonlinear dynamic analyses through Monte Carlo simulations. Nonlinear dynamic analyses are initially performed for a fully deterministic structural model based on the blueprints of the typical school building project. Uncertainties are introduced in different analysis cases following a modified version of the algorithm presented in Smyth et al. (2004) [21], which considers the effect of the random distribution of the parameters using a Monte Carlo approach. Aleatory uncertainties concerning material properties (i.e. compressive strength of concrete, yield strength of reinforcing steel and concrete density), geometrical characteristics (i.e. span lengths and story heights) and cross sectional dimensions of beams, columns and shear walls as well as epistemic uncertainty in the direction of ground motion excitation are considered. Statistical distributions for the parameters considered are obtained from in-situ measurements and material sampling tests. Fragility functions are produced in terms of peak ground acceleration and velocity as well as of the elastic spectral displacement at the first vibration period of the building. Mean damage ratios are calculated from the derived fragility functions. They are further compared to mean damage ratios calculated for similar building typologies provided in HAZUS-MH technical manual and in Istanbul building inventory. •Probabilistic structural fragility assessment of typical school buildings is presented.•Uncertainties in material and geometrical properties; in the ground motion considered.•The uncertainties cause a significant variation in the resulting fragility functions and this would lead different loss estimations.Ultimately when extended to include other school types as well the results can be used to quantify the uncertainties in the damage estimation of school buildings in Turkey for earthquake loss scenario purposes.
ISSN:0267-7261
1879-341X
DOI:10.1016/j.soildyn.2014.09.005