Three Putative Types of El Niño Revealed by Spatial Variability in Impact on Australian Wheat Yield

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon significantly impacts rainfall and ensuing crop yields in many parts of the world. In Australia, El Niño events are often associated with severe drought conditions. However, El Niño events differ spatially and temporally in their manifestations and...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of climate 2005-05, Vol.18 (10), p.1566-1574
Main Authors: Potgieter, A. B., Hammer, G. L., Meinke, H., Stone, R. C., Goddard, L.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural and forest climatology and meteorology. Irrigation. Drainage
Agricultural and forest meteorology
Agricultural production
Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions
Biological and medical sciences
Climatic models of plant production
Drought
Earth, ocean, space
El Nino
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
General agronomy. Plant production
Generalities. Techniques. Climatology. Meteorology. Climatic models of plant production
Hammers
Ocean currents
Oceans
Physics of the oceans
Rain
Sea-air exchange processes
Seasons
Southern oscillation
Time series
Triticum aestivum
Weather forecasting
Wheat
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Summary:The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon significantly impacts rainfall and ensuing crop yields in many parts of the world. In Australia, El Niño events are often associated with severe drought conditions. However, El Niño events differ spatially and temporally in their manifestations and impacts, reducing the relevance of ENSO-based seasonal forecasts. In this analysis, three putative types of El Niño are identified among the 24 occurrences since the beginning of the twentieth century. The three types are based on coherent spatial patterns (“footprints”) found in the El Niño impact on Australian wheat yield. This bioindicator reveals aligned spatial patterns in rainfall anomalies, indicating linkage to atmospheric drivers. Analysis of the associated ocean–atmosphere dynamics identifies three types of El Niño differing in the timing of onset and location of major ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure anomalies. Potential causal mechanisms associated with these differences in anomaly patterns need to be investigated further using the increasing capabilities of general circulation models. Any improved predictability would be extremely valuable in forecasting effects of individual El Niño events on agricultural systems.
ISSN:0894-8755
1520-0442
DOI:10.1175/JCLI3349.1