High-Risk Sex Offenders May Not Be High Risk Forever

This study examined the extent to which sexual offenders present an enduring risk for sexual recidivism over a 20-year follow-up period. Using an aggregated sample of 7,740 sexual offenders from 21 samples, the yearly recidivism rates were calculated using survival analysis. Overall, the risk of sex...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of interpersonal violence 2014-10, Vol.29 (15), p.2792-2813
Main Authors: Hanson, R. Karl, Harris, Andrew J. R., Helmus, Leslie, Thornton, David
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adult
Criminals - psychology
Humans
Male
Middle Aged
Offenders
Offenses
Recidivism
Risk
Risk Assessment
Risk Factors
Sex Offenders
Sex Offenses - psychology
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Summary:This study examined the extent to which sexual offenders present an enduring risk for sexual recidivism over a 20-year follow-up period. Using an aggregated sample of 7,740 sexual offenders from 21 samples, the yearly recidivism rates were calculated using survival analysis. Overall, the risk of sexual recidivism was highest during the first few years after release, and decreased substantially the longer individuals remained sex offense–free in the community. This pattern was particularly strong for the high-risk sexual offenders (defined by Static-99R scores). Whereas the 5-year sexual recidivism rate for high-risk sex offenders was 22% from the time of release, this rate decreased to 4.2% for the offenders in the same static risk category who remained offense-free in the community for 10 years. The recidivism rates of the low-risk offenders were consistently low (1%-5%) for all time periods. The results suggest that offense history is a valid, but time-dependent, indicator of the propensity to sexually reoffend. Further research is needed to explain the substantial rate of desistance by high-risk sexual offenders.
ISSN:0886-2605
1552-6518
DOI:10.1177/0886260514526062