A simple probabilistic model to combine losses arising from the simultaneous occurrence of several hazards

A simple model is presented to combine, using a probabilistic approach, the losses arising from several hazards that are triggered simultaneously by the same event. The merits of the model are presented, demonstrating the intuitive appeal of this combination rule. Assuming that the losses due to ind...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2015-03, Vol.76 (1), p.389-396
Main Author: Ordaz, Mario
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Appeals
Approximation
Civil Engineering
Construction
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Environmental Management
Geophysics/Geodesy
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Hazards
Hydrogeology
Natural Hazards
Original Paper
Probabilistic methods
Probability
Probability distribution
Probability theory
Random variables
Variance
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Summary:A simple model is presented to combine, using a probabilistic approach, the losses arising from several hazards that are triggered simultaneously by the same event. The merits of the model are presented, demonstrating the intuitive appeal of this combination rule. Assuming that the losses due to individual hazards are conditionally independent random variables with known mean and variance, expressions are given to compute the mean and variance of the combined loss. Finally, an approximate method is given to construct the probability distribution of this combined loss.
ISSN:0921-030X
1573-0840
DOI:10.1007/s11069-014-1495-7