Predicting nitrate concentrations in Northern Ireland Rivers using time series analysis

Lough Neagh is an important natural resource, being the largest single source of potable water for Belfast. Its catchment area covers about one-third of the land area of Northern Ireland. Six inflow rivers drain 88% of the total catchment, which has a land usage of grassland and rough grazing that i...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of environmental quality 1997-11, Vol.26 (6), p.1599-1604
Main Authors: Stronge, K.M, Lennox, S.D, Smith, R.V
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions
AGUA POTABLE
Applied sciences
AZOTE
Biological and medical sciences
CALIDAD DEL AGUA
Continental surface waters
DRINKING WATER
Earth sciences
Earth, ocean, space
EAU POTABLE
Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics
Exact sciences and technology
Freshwater
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
IRLANDA DEL NORTE
IRLANDE DU NORD
Natural water pollution
NITRATE
NITRATES
NITRATOS
NITROGEN
NITROGENO
NORTHERN IRELAND
Pollution
POLLUTION DE L'EAU
Pollution, environment geology
POLUCION DEL AGUA
QUALITE DE L'EAU
Soil and water pollution
Soil science
WATER POLLUTION
WATER QUALITY
Water treatment and pollution
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Summary:Lough Neagh is an important natural resource, being the largest single source of potable water for Belfast. Its catchment area covers about one-third of the land area of Northern Ireland. Six inflow rivers drain 88% of the total catchment, which has a land usage of grassland and rough grazing that is similar to Northern Ireland as a whole. This report examines the causes of the year-to-year variation in river NO3- concentrations that have been the focus of European Community (EC) legislation. A multiple regression model has been developed which explains 74% of the variation in NO3- concentrations for the time period 1974 to 1994. Based on a knowledge of the Northern Ireland annual utilized metabolizable energy (UME) for grazing livestock and N fertilizer sales, the model employs the efficiency of fertilizer usage as an independent variable. Additional independent variables are climatic previous summer rainfall, sun hours in the winter and rainfall for the period January to June. Based on a worst case scenario, employing the extreme values for these climatic variables and the least fertilizer efficiency ratio, the predicted NO3- concentration is only 4.4 mg N L-1, which is well below the EC maximum admissible level of 11.3 mg N L-1 for drinking water
ISSN:0047-2425
1537-2537
DOI:10.2134/jeq1997.00472425002600060020x