The Pacific quasi-decadal oscillation (QDO): An important precursor toward anticipating major flood events in the Missouri River Basin?

Measurements taken by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites indicated a continued water storage increase over the Missouri River Basin (MRB) prior to the 2011 flood event. An analysis of the major hydrologic variables in the MRB, i.e., those of soil moisture, streamflow, groundwater...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Geophysical research letters 2014-02, Vol.41 (3), p.991-997
Main Authors: Wang, Shih-Yu, Hakala, Kirsti, Gillies, Robert R., Capehart, William J.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmospheric precipitations
Climate
Diagnostic systems
Dry spells
Drying
extreme floods
Floods
Freshwater
Gravitation
Gravity
Groundwater
Groundwater storage
Hydrology
Loads (forces)
Long-term changes
Marine
Missouri River
Modulation
Modulus of rupture in bending
Moisture
Oscillations
Precipitation
Precursors
QDO
Rainfall
Recovery
Remote sensing
River basins
Satellites
Soil
Soil moisture
Spaceborne remote sensing
Storage
Stream discharge
Stream flow
teleconnection
Teleconnections
Time
Transition points
Variability
Water scarcity
Water storage
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Summary:Measurements taken by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites indicated a continued water storage increase over the Missouri River Basin (MRB) prior to the 2011 flood event. An analysis of the major hydrologic variables in the MRB, i.e., those of soil moisture, streamflow, groundwater storage, and precipitation, show a marked variability at the 10–15 year time scale coincident with the water storage increase. A climate diagnostic analysis was conducted to determine what climate forcing conditions preceded the long‐term changes in these variables. It was found that precipitation over the MRB undergoes a profound modulation during the transition points of the Pacific quasi‐decadal oscillation and associated teleconnections. The results infer a prominent teleconnection forcing in driving the wet/dry spells in the MRB, and this connection implies persistence of dry conditions for the next 2 to 3 years. Key Points GRACE detected groundwater buildup before the 2011 Missouri River flood A quasi‐decadal oscillation is found to modulate long‐term groundwater changes This QDO modulation has a potential for decadal prediction
ISSN:0094-8276
1944-8007
DOI:10.1002/2013GL059042