GEPIC-V-R model: A GIS-based tool for regional crop drought risk assessment

•An extended GEPIC model (GEPIC-V-R) for crop drought risk assessment is developed.•Maize drought vulnerability and global maize drought risk are modeled by GEPIC-V-R.•High risk is present in South Africa, West and Central Europe, Southeast Asia, etc.•Risk pattern of China is low in southern regions...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Agricultural water management 2014-10, Vol.144, p.107-119
Main Authors: Yin, Yuanyuan, Zhang, Xingming, Lin, Degen, Yu, Han, Wang, Jing’ai, Shi, Peijun
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural and forest climatology and meteorology. Irrigation. Drainage
Agronomy. Soil science and plant productions
Biological and medical sciences
Crops
Disaster management
Drought risk
Droughts
Foods
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
General agronomy. Plant production
Global
Large scale risk assessment model (GEPIC-VR model)
Maize
Mathematical models
Risk
Risk assessment
Vulnerability curves
Zea mays
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Summary:•An extended GEPIC model (GEPIC-V-R) for crop drought risk assessment is developed.•Maize drought vulnerability and global maize drought risk are modeled by GEPIC-V-R.•High risk is present in South Africa, West and Central Europe, Southeast Asia, etc.•Risk pattern of China is low in southern regions and high in northern regions.•Coefficients between the model results and ‘real-world’ data are greater than 0.48. In recent years, food losses caused by drought accounted for approximately 60% of the total world food loss, seriously threatening the world's food security and sustainable development. Against the background of frequent extreme climate events and “local warming and drying”, frequency and potential risks of global drought have tended to increase. As the scientific basis for disaster prevention and mitigation, disaster risk assessment has drawn widespread attention in the scientific community. Using the commonly used EPIC crop model, this study constructed a crop drought risk assessment model – GEPIC-V-R model – suitable for large regional scale, with functions to fit vulnerability curves and calculate risk. Additionally, global maize drought risk was assessed. From a global perspective, South Africa, Chile, Western and Central Europe, Russia and southeastern regions have elevated risks of maize drought; Chinese maize drought risk distribution is characterized by low risk in southern regions and high risk in northern regions. For once in 10- and 30-years, Pearson values between converted maize loss rate (CMLR) or Harikishan Jayanthi's loss rate and loss rate are greater than 0.7, with a S.D. of 0.01. Rank correlation analyses of 28 provinces in China and seven countries in Africa generated Pearson, Kendall and Spearman values greater than 0.48, with a S.D. of 0.05. There was a close correlation between the results and statistical predictions or existing results. Therefore, the simulation results supply the theoretical support for acting based on local conditions to manage drought and drought risk.
ISSN:0378-3774
1873-2283
DOI:10.1016/j.agwat.2014.05.017