Publishing trends on climate change vulnerability in the conservation literature reveal a predominant focus on direct impacts and long time‐scales

Over the past twelve years the number of papers that explore the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in the conservation literature has grown on average by 20% annually. By categorising these papers on their primary research questions, we show that the vast majority of these articles (88.6%) f...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Diversity & distributions 2014-10, Vol.20 (10), p.1221-1228
Main Authors:	Chapman, Sarah, Mustin, Karen, Renwick, Anna R, Segan, Daniel B, Hole, David G, Pearson, Richard G, Watson, James E. M, Richardson, David
Format:	Article
Language:	eng
Subjects:	Adaptation Adaptation planning Animal and plant ecology Animal, plant and microbial ecology Applied ecology Biodiversity BIODIVERSITY VIEWPOINT Biological and medical sciences Biological diversity conservation Biosphere Climate change Climatic conditions climatic factors Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change Conservation Conservation biology Decision making direct effects Earth, ocean, space Ecosystem biology Ecosystems Environmental impact Exact sciences and technology External geophysics extreme climate extreme weather Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology General aspects Global temperature changes Greenhouse effect humans Impact factors indirect effects issues and policy Meteorology Nonnative species Phenology politics Precipitation Predation Scholarly publishing Sea level Seasonal variations Synecology time-scale vulnerability Wildlife conservation
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Summary:	Over the past twelve years the number of papers that explore the impacts of climate change on biodiversity in the conservation literature has grown on average by 20% annually. By categorising these papers on their primary research questions, we show that the vast majority of these articles (88.6%) focus only on those impacts that arise directly as a result of climate change, ignoring the potentially significant indirect threats that arise from human adaptation responses. This pattern has remained fairly consistent throughout the review period (2000–2012), with a trend towards more articles considering both direct and indirect impacts towards the end of the period. We also find a bias in the time‐frames considered by published articles that project future impacts of climate change on biodiversity, with more than three‐quarters (77.9%) of papers only considering impacts after 2031, and almost half (49.1%) only considering impacts after 2051. This focus on long‐term, direct impacts creates a mismatch, not only with the life‐cycles of species and timescales of many ecological processes, but also with most management and policy timelines and the short‐term nature of human decision making processes. The focus on studying the long‐term, direct impacts of climate change on biodiversity is likely a function of the lack of availability of climate projections on shorter temporal scales; a perception that short‐term impacts will be minor; and, insufficient integration with the social and political sciences. While the direct impact of changes in mean climatic conditions will significantly change the biosphere by the end of the century, near term changes in seasonality and extreme events coupled with human adaptation responses are likely to have substantial impacts much sooner, threatening the survival of species and ecosystems. It is therefore essential that we balance our research efforts to facilitate a better understanding of these more imminent threats.
ISSN:	1366-9516 1472-4642