Response of Earth's surface temperature to radiative forcing over A.D. 1-2009

An energy balance model (EBM) of the annual global mean surface temperature is described and calibrated to the sensitivity and temporal dynamics of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies modelE global climate model (GCM). The effective radiative forcings of 10 agents are estimated over the past 200...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of Geophysical Research 2011-07, Vol.116 (D13), p.n/a, Article D13112
Main Author: Friend, A. D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aerosols
Atmospheric sciences
Climate
Climate change
Earth
Estimates
forcing
Geophysics
Mathematical models
millennial
Paleoclimate science
Parametrization
Radiative forcing
Reconstruction
temperature
Uncertainty
variability
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Summary:An energy balance model (EBM) of the annual global mean surface temperature is described and calibrated to the sensitivity and temporal dynamics of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies modelE global climate model (GCM). The effective radiative forcings of 10 agents are estimated over the past 2009 years and used as inputs to the model. Temperatures are relatively stable from around A.D. 300 until a “Medieval Climate Anomaly” starting around A.D. 1050. This is ended by a massive volcanic eruption in A.D. 1258, which initiates a multicentury era of low and relatively variable global mean temperatures, including a “Little Ice Age” A.D. 1588–1720. This era only ends at the beginning of the 20th century. The model estimate of forced centennial variability is smaller than the observed variability in reconstructions over the past two millennia. Also, the default parameterization results in less warming than observed over A.D. 1910–1944. Prediction uncertainty in the pre‐industrial era is dominated by solar forcing, with the climate feedback factor and volcanic aerosols also playing important roles. In contrast, prediction uncertainty post–A.D. 1750 is much higher and dominated by uncertainties in direct and indirect aerosol and land use forcings. Improving estimates of these will greatly increase our ability to attribute observed temperature variability to contemporary forcings. Key Points Radiative forcing of ten agents created for A.D. 1–2009 A simple energy balance model is tuned to a GCM Annual global temperatures are predicted A.D. 1–2009
ISSN:0148-0227
2169-897X
2156-2202
2169-8996
DOI:10.1029/2010JD015143