Modelling ecological responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to future climate change and its uncertainty

Abstract Ito, S-I., Okunishi, T., Kishi, M. J., and Wang, M. 2013. Modelling ecological responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to future climate change and its uncertainty. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 980–990. An ecosystem-based bioenergetics model was used to investigate the respons...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:ICES journal of marine science 2013-09, Vol.70 (5), p.980-990
Main Authors: Ito, Shin-ichi, Okunishi, Takeshi, Kishi, Michio J., Wang, Muyin
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Climate change
Climate models
Density
Marine
Migration
Modelling
Plankton
Uncertainty
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Abstract Ito, S-I., Okunishi, T., Kishi, M. J., and Wang, M. 2013. Modelling ecological responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to future climate change and its uncertainty. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 70: 980–990. An ecosystem-based bioenergetics model was used to investigate the responses of Pacific saury (Cololabis saira) to global warming. The model was forced by the projected sea surface temperature (SST) generated by climate models that formed the bases for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4). Twelve climate models, which reproduced the Pacific Decadal Oscillation well compared with observations, were selected and B1, A1B, and A2 emissions scenarios were used. In total, 33 ensemble simulations were conducted, of which 24 (73%) showed a decrease in wet weight of Pacific saury. The migration pattern was modified in 11 (33%) cases. In these cases, higher SST and size reduction under global warming prevented or delayed the southern migration of saury in winter. As a result, egg production was enhanced by the higher availability of prey plankton in the modified spawning region. A case study to separate the direct temperature effects was conducted, in which prey plankton density was assumed to be the same as the control run. The results suggest that an SST increase will directly reduce juvenile growth, whereas a prey plankton density decrease has an influence on the growth of adults and migration pattern, and hence egg production.
ISSN:1054-3139
1095-9289
DOI:10.1093/icesjms/fst089