The transition towards renewable energies: Physical limits and temporal conditions

The perspectives of the depletion of fossil energy resources, together with the consequences of climate change, have provoked the development of numerous national and pluri-national energy policies. However, there have been few overall studies on the evolution of these resources. This paper uses a d...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Energy policy 2013-01, Vol.52, p.297-311
Main Authors: Mediavilla, Margarita, de Castro, Carlos, Capellán, Iñigo, Javier Miguel, Luis, Arto, Iñaki, Frechoso, Fernando
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Alternative energy sources
Alternative fuel vehicles
Applied sciences
Biofuels
Biomass energy
Climate change
dynamic models
Economic data
Economic development
Economic growth
Electric energy
Energy
Energy economics
Energy policy
Energy resources
Exact sciences and technology
General, economic and professional studies
Global warming
Land
Methodology. Modelling
Nuclear fuels
oils
Peak oil
petroleum
Power generation
Production
Productivity
Renewable energy
Renewable energy sources
Saving
Studies
System dynamics
Technology
vehicles (equipment)
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:The perspectives of the depletion of fossil energy resources, together with the consequences of climate change, have provoked the development of numerous national and pluri-national energy policies. However, there have been few overall studies on the evolution of these resources. This paper uses a dynamic model to study the exhaustion patterns of world fossil and nuclear fuels and their possible replacement by renewable energy sources. The results show that peak oil will be the first restriction and it will not be easily overcome. Electric vehicles can produce some interesting savings, but they are insufficient to avoid the decline in oil. Biofuels are even more limited, due to the enormous extensions of fertile land they require and their low productivity. This shows that overcoming the decline in oil will need much more ambitious policies than the mere substitution of technology. If the “oil–economy” relationship does not change substantially, world economic growth may be seriously limited or even negative. In contrast, the production of electrical energy is not such a worrying problem in the short and middle-term. ► We study world energy demand and resources with a systems dynamics model. ► We find that peak oil cannot be overcomed with simple technological substitution. ► Past economic growth and energy intensity trends cannot be maintained. ► Electric vehicles are only a partial solution, biofuels are even more limited. ► Substitution of electric energy by renewables is much easier than oil substitution.
ISSN:0301-4215
1873-6777
DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2012.09.033