Attributiveness of a mass flow analysis model for integrated water resources assessment under data-scarce conditions

Nutrients in river systems originate from multiple emission sources, follow various pathways, and are subject to processes of conversion and fate. One approach to tackle this complexity is to apply balance-oriented models. Although these models operate on a coarse temporal and spatial scale, they ar...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Water science and technology 2013-01, Vol.67 (2), p.261-270
Main Authors: HELM, B, TEREKHANOVA, T, TRÄNCKNER, J, VENOHR, M, KREBS, P
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis methods
Applied sciences
Case studies
Catchment area
Catchments
Computer Simulation
Emission analysis
Emissions
Emissions control
Exact sciences and technology
Geography
Global environmental pollution
Mass flow
Mineral nutrients
Modelling
Models, Theoretical
Natural water pollution
Nitrogen - analysis
Nutrients
Phosphorus - analysis
Pollution
Pollution sources
Quality management
River systems
Rivers
Statistics as Topic
Ukraine
Water Movements
Water Quality
Water quality management
Water Resources
Water treatment and pollution
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Summary:Nutrients in river systems originate from multiple emission sources, follow various pathways, and are subject to processes of conversion and fate. One approach to tackle this complexity is to apply balance-oriented models. Although these models operate on a coarse temporal and spatial scale, they are capable of assessing the significance of the different emission sources and their results can be the basis for developing integrated water quality management schemes. In this paper we propose and apply a methodology to evaluate the attributiveness of such model results with regard to the modelled emission pathways. The MONERIS (MOdelling Nutrient Emissions in RIver Systems) model is set up, assuming plausible ranges of emission levels from four principal sources. The sensitivity of model performance is computed and related to the contribution from the pathways. The approach is applied for a case study in the upper Western Bug catchment (Ukraine). Coefficient of determination (R(2)) is found insensitive against the model assumptions, at levels around 0.65 for nitrogen and 0.55 for phosphorous emissions. Relative mean absolute error is minimized around 0.2 for both nutrients, but with equifinal combinations of the varied emission pathways. Model performance is constrained by the ranges of the emission assumptions to a limited extent only.
ISSN:0273-1223
1996-9732
DOI:10.2166/wst.2012.497