A straightforward conceptual approach for evaluating spatial conservation priorities under climate change

Despite wide evidence of a quickly changing world, systematic conservation planning analyses are usually static assuming that the biodiversity being preserved in sites do not change through time. Here we generated a comprehensive ensemble forecasting experiment for 444 amphibian species inhabiting t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Biodiversity and conservation 2013-02, Vol.22 (2), p.483-495
Main Authors: Loyola, Rafael D., Lemes, Priscila, Nabout, João Carlos, Trindade-Filho, Joaquim, Sagnori, Maíra Dalía, Dobrovolski, Ricardo, Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Animal populations
Animal, plant and microbial ecology
Applied ecology
Biodiversity
Biological and medical sciences
Biological diversity conservation
Biomedical and Life Sciences
Biomes
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climatology. Bioclimatology. Climate change
Conservation biology
Conservation Biology/Ecology
Conservation, protection and management of environment and wildlife
Earth, ocean, space
Ecology
Environmental law
Exact sciences and technology
External geophysics
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
General aspects
Global temperature changes
Habitats
Life Sciences
Mathematical models
Meteorology
Niche (Ecology)
Original Paper
Parks, reserves, wildlife conservation. Endangered species: population survey and restocking
Protection and preservation
Reptiles & amphibians
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Summary:Despite wide evidence of a quickly changing world, systematic conservation planning analyses are usually static assuming that the biodiversity being preserved in sites do not change through time. Here we generated a comprehensive ensemble forecasting experiment for 444 amphibian species inhabiting the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot. Models were based on four methods for modeling ecological niches, and three future climate simulations. Combinations of these models were used to estimate species occurrences. We used species occurrences to optimize the current and future representation of amphibians with different conservation targets based on their geographic range size. We compared spatial priority outcomes (variance of site selection frequency scores) under dynamic conditions, using a bi-dimensional plot in which the relative importance of each site in achieving conservation targets was assessed both for current time and to 2050. Projections for 2050 show that species richness pattern will remain approximately constant, whereas high turnover rates are forecasted. Selection frequency of several locations varied widely, with recurrent sites located at the north and southeast of the biome. As for 2050, spatial priorities concentrate in the northern part of the biome. Thirty-three sites have high priority for conservation as they play an important role now and will still stand as priority locations in 2050. We present a conceptual model for dynamic spatial conservation prioritization that helps to identify priority sites under climate change. We also call attention to sites in which risk of investment is high, and to those that may become interesting options in the future.
ISSN:0960-3115
1572-9710
DOI:10.1007/s10531-012-0424-x