The fertility transition in South Africa: A retrospective panel data analysis

Since 1960 South Africa has seen a steep fall in fertility levels and currently its total fertility rate is the lowest on the African continent. Given the high prevailing levels of fertility in African countries, a better understanding of the factors behind the fertility transition will be valuable...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Development southern Africa (Sandton, South Africa) South Africa), 2012-12, Vol.29 (5), p.738-755
Main Authors: Burger, Rulof P, Burger, Ronelle, Rossouw, Laura
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Cohorts
Data analysis
Fertility rate
fertility transition
HIV
Population economics
retrospective panel
Social norms
Social roles
South Africa
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Summary:Since 1960 South Africa has seen a steep fall in fertility levels and currently its total fertility rate is the lowest on the African continent. Given the high prevailing levels of fertility in African countries, a better understanding of the factors behind the fertility transition will be valuable not only for South Africa, but also more widely for other African countries. This paper uses the National Income Dynamics Study data to construct a retrospective panel to investigate reasons for the decline in fertility. The analysis attributes a large share of the observed fertility decline across birth cohorts to improvements in education levels and the lower prevalence of marriage. However, a considerable segment of the transition is ascribed to unobservables. These may include HIV/AIDS, the increased use of contraceptives and changes in both intra-household relationships and the social role of women.
ISSN:0376-835X
1470-3637
DOI:10.1080/0376835X.2012.731779