The market potential for plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles in Flanders: A choice-based conjoint analysis

► We forecast the market potential for plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles in Flanders, Belgium. ► Part-worth utilities are found for nine vehicle attributes. ► We forecast the penetration rate of electric vehicles in 2012, 2020 and 2030. ► We conclude that until 2020, the market share of e...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:	Transportation research. Part D, Transport and environment Transport and environment, 2012-12, Vol.17 (8), p.592-597
Main Authors:	Lebeau, Kenneth, Van Mierlo, Joeri, Lebeau, Philippe, Mairesse, Olivier, Macharis, Cathy
Format:	Article
Language:	eng
Subjects:	Battery electric vehicles Electric vehicles Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles
Online Access:	Get full text
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Summary:	► We forecast the market potential for plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles in Flanders, Belgium. ► Part-worth utilities are found for nine vehicle attributes. ► We forecast the penetration rate of electric vehicles in 2012, 2020 and 2030. ► We conclude that until 2020, the market share of electric vehicles will still be limited. This paper considers the market potential for battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in Flanders, Belgium. Making use of a large-scale survey conducted in 2011 and applying a choice-based conjoint experiment, it is predicted that by 2020, battery electric vehicles could have a market share of about 5% of new vehicles, and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles could have a share of around 7%. By 2030, these figures could increase to 15% and 29%. The speed of up-take of electric vehicles, however, is sensitive to purchase costs.
ISSN:	1361-9209 1879-2340