Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in the neutronic parameters generation for BWR and PWR coupled thermal-hydraulic–neutronic simulations

► Best-estimate codes are affected by the uncertainty in the methods and the models. ► Influence of the uncertainty in the macroscopic cross-sections in a BWR and PWR RIA accidents analysis. ► The fast diffusion coefficient, the scattering cross section and both fission cross sections are the most i...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nuclear engineering and design 2012-05, Vol.246, p.98-106
Main Authors: Ánchel, F., Barrachina, T., Miró, R., Verdú, G., Juanas, J., Macián-Juan, R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Computer simulation
Cross sections
Intervals
Mathematical models
Samples
Sampling
Statistical methods
Uncertainty
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Summary:► Best-estimate codes are affected by the uncertainty in the methods and the models. ► Influence of the uncertainty in the macroscopic cross-sections in a BWR and PWR RIA accidents analysis. ► The fast diffusion coefficient, the scattering cross section and both fission cross sections are the most influential factors. ► The absorption cross sections very little influence. ► Using a normal pdf the results are more “conservative” comparing the power peak reached with uncertainty quantified with a uniform pdf. The Best Estimate analysis consists of a coupled thermal-hydraulic and neutronic description of the nuclear system's behavior; uncertainties from both aspects should be included and jointly propagated. This paper presents a study of the influence of the uncertainty in the macroscopic neutronic information that describes a three-dimensional core model on the most relevant results of the simulation of a Reactivity Induced Accident (RIA). The analyses of a BWR-RIA and a PWR-RIA have been carried out with a three-dimensional thermal-hydraulic and neutronic model for the coupled system TRACE-PARCS and RELAP-PARCS. The cross section information has been generated by the SIMTAB methodology based on the joint use of CASMO-SIMULATE. The statistically based methodology performs a Monte-Carlo kind of sampling of the uncertainty in the macroscopic cross sections. The size of the sampling is determined by the characteristics of the tolerance intervals by applying the Noether–Wilks formulas. A number of simulations equal to the sample size have been carried out in which the cross sections used by PARCS are directly modified with uncertainty, and non-parametric statistical methods are applied to the resulting sample of the values of the output variables to determine their intervals of tolerance.
ISSN:0029-5493
1872-759X
DOI:10.1016/j.nucengdes.2011.11.016