A paradox for tiny probabilities and enormous values

We begin by showing that every theory of the value of uncertain prospects must have one of three unpalatable properties. Reckless theories recommend giving up a sure thing, no matter how good, for an arbitrarily tiny chance of enormous gain; timid theories permit passing up an arbitrarily large pote...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Noûs (Bloomington, Indiana) Indiana), 2024-06, Vol.58 (2), p.431-455
Main Authors: Beckstead, Nick, Thomas, Teruji
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Norms
Probability
Uncertainty
Values
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Summary:We begin by showing that every theory of the value of uncertain prospects must have one of three unpalatable properties. Reckless theories recommend giving up a sure thing, no matter how good, for an arbitrarily tiny chance of enormous gain; timid theories permit passing up an arbitrarily large potential gain to prevent a tiny increase in risk; non‐transitive theories deny the principle that, if A$A$ is better than B$B$ and B$B$ is better than C$C$, then A$A$ must be better than C$C$. Having set up this trilemma, we study its horns. Non‐transitivity has been much discussed; we focus on drawing out the costs and benefits of recklessness and timidity when it comes to axiology, decision theory, and normative uncertainty.
ISSN:0029-4624
1468-0068
DOI:10.1111/nous.12462