Rapid disease spread on dense networks with power-law topology

Models of disease spread in networks typically focus on exploring various measures to reduce the spread of disease across individuals within a network. However, the topology of the underlying network plays an important role in determining the best time to implement mitigation measures to achieve bet...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The European physical journal. B, Condensed matter physics Condensed matter physics, 2024-05, Vol.97 (5), Article 53
Main Authors: Esquivel-Gómez, J. J., Barajas-Ramírez, J. G.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Complex Systems
Condensed Matter Physics
Fluid- and Aerodynamics
Network topologies
New Trends in Statistical Physics of Complex Systems: Theoretical and Experimental Approaches
Physics
Physics and Astronomy
Power law
Regular Article - Statistical and Nonlinear Physics
Social distancing
Solid State Physics
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Summary:Models of disease spread in networks typically focus on exploring various measures to reduce the spread of disease across individuals within a network. However, the topology of the underlying network plays an important role in determining the best time to implement mitigation measures to achieve better results. In this article we show the behavior of the well-known SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) and SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) models over networks with both scale-free and dense structure with power-law topology P ( k ) ∼ k - ζ with 1 < ζ < ∞ . Focusing on the maximum number of infected individuals ( I max ) and the number of days before it emerges, i.e., the speed at which infected individuals increase. We show that as the network structure becomes dense, i.e., the number of connections among the individuals within the network increases and ζ approaches one, I max tends to be higher and it emerges rapidly. In those cases, implementing quick mitigation measures is very important. In this sense, we found that mitigation measures like social distancing can help to reduce the amount of infected individuals, specially when ζ ≥ 3 . Moreover, for ζ bellow three, social distancing loses its effectiveness as mitigation measure. Graphic abstract In left, the scheme of the Susceptible-Infected-Removed and Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible models are illustrated. In right, the solution of the classical SIR and SIS models is showed, denotting graphically the maximum number of infected individuals ( I max ) and the number of days before it is reached
ISSN:1434-6028
1434-6036
DOI:10.1140/epjb/s10051-024-00675-7