Forecasting emergent risks in advanced AI systems: an analysis of a future road transport management system

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is being increasingly implemented within road transport systems worldwide. Next generation of AI, Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is imminent, and is anticipated to be more powerful than current AI. AGI systems will have a broad range of abilities and be able to pe...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Ergonomics 2023-11, Vol.66 (11), p.1750-1767
Main Authors: McLean, S., King, B. J., Thompson, J., Carden, T., Stanton, N. A., Baber, C., Read, G. J. M., Salmon, P. M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
AI alignment
Artificial general intelligence
Artificial Intelligence
Cognitive ability
Cognitive tasks
Ethical standards
Forecasting
Humans
Public relations
risk
road transport
Road transportation
Roads
safety
Technology
Transportation management
Transportation systems
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Artificial Intelligence (AI) is being increasingly implemented within road transport systems worldwide. Next generation of AI, Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is imminent, and is anticipated to be more powerful than current AI. AGI systems will have a broad range of abilities and be able to perform multiple cognitive tasks akin to humans that will likely produce many expected benefits, but also potential risks. This study applied the EAST Broken Links approach to forecast the functioning of an AGI system tasked with managing a road transport system and identify potential risks. In total, 363 risks were identified that could have adverse impacts on the stated goals of safety, efficiency, environmental sustainability, and economic performance of the road system. Further, risks beyond the stated goals were identified; removal from human control, mismanaging public relations, and self-preservation. A diverse set of systemic controls will be required when designing, implementing, and operating future advanced technologies. Practitioner summary: This study demonstrated the utility of HFE methods for formally considering risks associated with the design, implementation, and operation of future technologies. This study has implications for AGI research, design, and development to ensure safe and ethical AGI implementation.
ISSN:0014-0139
1366-5847
DOI:10.1080/00140139.2023.2286907