Modeling the Impacts of Soil Management on Avoided Deforestation and REDD+ Payments in the Brazilian Amazon: A Systems Approach

An Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) was employed to develop a Narrative Policy Framework (NPF) and a quantitative model to investigate the changes in land use within the Brazilian Amazon. The process began by creating a theoretical NPF using a ‘systems thinking’ approach. Subsequently, a ‘system dy...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Sustainability 2023-08, Vol.15 (15), p.12099
Main Authors: Brasil, Alexandre Anders, Angelo, Humberto, de Almeida, Alexandre Nascimento, Matricardi, Eraldo Aparecido Trondoli, Chaves, Henrique Marinho Leite, de Paula, Maristela Franchetti
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agriculture
Beef cattle
Brazil
Carbon
Climatic changes
Decision making
Deforestation
Forests
Indonesia
Land degradation
Opportunity costs
Productivity
Soil management
Sustainability
Sustainable development
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Summary:An Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) was employed to develop a Narrative Policy Framework (NPF) and a quantitative model to investigate the changes in land use within the Brazilian Amazon. The process began by creating a theoretical NPF using a ‘systems thinking’ approach. Subsequently, a ‘system dynamic model’ was built based on an extensive review of the literature and on multiple quantitative datasets to simulate the impacts of the NPF, specifically focusing on the conversion of forests into open land for ranching and the implementation of soil management practices as a macro-level policy aimed at preserving soil quality and ranching yields. Various fallow scenarios were tested to simulate their effects on deforestation patterns. The results indicate that implementing fallow practices as a policy measure could reduce deforestation rates while simultaneously ensuring sustainable long-term agricultural productivity, thus diminishing the necessity to clear new forest land. Moreover, when combined with payments for avoided deforestation, such as REDD+ carbon offsets, the opportunity costs associated with ranching land can be utilized to compensate for the loss of gross income resulting from the policy. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the significance of different model variables, revealing that lower cattle prices require resources for REDD+ payments, and vice-versa. The findings indicate that, at the macro level, payments between USD 2.5 and USD 5.0 per MgC ha−1 have the potential to compensate the foregone cattle production from not converting forest into ranching land. This study demonstrates that employing an IAM with a systems approach facilitates the participation of various stakeholders, including farmers and landowners, in policy discussions. It also enables the establishment of effective land use and management policies that mitigate deforestation and soil degradation, making it a robust initiative to address environmental, climate change, and economic sustainability issues.
ISSN:2071-1050
2071-1050
DOI:10.3390/su151512099