Retrospective Prediction of Location and Intensity for Two Large Crustal Earthquakes in Iran and India

This paper reports results of mathematical modeling applied to the stress and strain in epicentral zones before and after the large earthquakes that occurred on June 22, 2002 in the Qazvin Province, northwestern Iran ( M w = 6.4) and the Gujarat, India earthquake of January 26, 2001 ( M = 6.9). The...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of volcanology and seismology 2023-06, Vol.17 (3), p.219-227
Main Authors: Morozov, V. N., Manevich, A. I., Tatarinov, V. N.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Aftershocks
Boundary conditions
Connecting
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earthquake prediction
Earthquakes
Fault lines
Geochemistry
Geological data
Geological faults
Geology
Geophysics/Geodesy
Mathematical models
Modelling
Rupture
Seismic activity
Seismological data
Seismology
Strain
Stress concentration
Stress distribution
Tectonics
Citations: Items that this one cites
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:This paper reports results of mathematical modeling applied to the stress and strain in epicentral zones before and after the large earthquakes that occurred on June 22, 2002 in the Qazvin Province, northwestern Iran ( M w = 6.4) and the Gujarat, India earthquake of January 26, 2001 ( M = 6.9). The modeling relied on a method for calculating stress and strain in a blocky elastic isotropic heterogeneous medium disturbed by a set of faults that are due to an external tectonic stress field. The boundary conditions were specified based on geological and seismological data. It has been shown that the epicenters of large crustal earthquakes occur in zones of high stress concentration at the ends of tectonic faults. Rupture occurs when the relationship between acting tectonic stresses satisfies the requirement σ yy /σ xx >3, thus connecting zones of high stress. The evolution of the aftershock process is controlled by the stress drop caused by a new rupture, while the resulting aftershock clusters are in spatial correlation with the stress drop zone. The new rupture propagates in the direction of dominant tectonic fault orientation in the region. We show a relationship to exist between rupture length and the possible retrospectively predicted location and magnitude of the earthquake depending on the elastic energy buildup and its possible release under specified structural tectonic conditions.
ISSN:0742-0463
1819-7108
DOI:10.1134/S074204632370015X