Modeling the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the Baro–Akobo River basin, Ethiopia

Understanding the impacts of climate change on basin hydrology is critical for developing effective water management practices. This study was conducted to investigate climate change and its impact on the hydrological processes of the Baro–Akobo River basin in Ethiopia. Five bias-corrected regional...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Acta geophysica 2023-08, Vol.71 (4), p.1915-1935
Main Authors: Mengistu, Abiy Getachew, Woldesenbet, Tekalegn Ayele, Dile, Yihun Taddele, Bayabil, Haimanote Kebede
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Annual runoff
Climate and hydrology
Climate change
Climate models
Decision making
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Environmental impact
Evapotranspiration
Future climates
Geophysics/Geodesy
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Hydrologic processes
Hydrology
Minimum temperatures
Monthly rainfall
Rainfall
Rainy season
Regional climate models
Regional climates
Regional development
Research Article - Hydrology
River basins
Rivers
Structural Geology
Surface runoff
Temperature changes
Water harvesting
Water management
Water yield
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Understanding the impacts of climate change on basin hydrology is critical for developing effective water management practices. This study was conducted to investigate climate change and its impact on the hydrological processes of the Baro–Akobo River basin in Ethiopia. Five bias-corrected regional climate models and their ensemble were developed to examine future climate changes in the 2030s (2021–2050) and 2080s (2071–2100) periods under the two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios compared to a baseline (1981–2010) period. The calibrated model performed well with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination of each 0.73 for daily and 0.89 and 0.9 for monthly simulation, respectively. Though all RCMs agree concerning the increasing direction of the 2030 and 2080s maximum and minimum temperature changes, there is inconsistency in the magnitude and direction of monthly projected rainfall changes. With the ensemble, the maximum and minimum temperatures will increase by 2.6 and 3.6 °C, respectively, and rainfall will decrease by 5% in the 2080s under RCP8.5 scenarios. The dry and wet season rainfall are expected to decrease by 19 and 3.7% under the RCP8.5 scenarios in the 2080s. Consequently, future climate change could cause a decrease in the annual surface runoff and water yield, while evapotranspiration could increase under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. This study provides useful insights about potential climate change impacts on the hydrology of the basin, which could be useful to inform decision-makers in developing strategies such as water harvesting to mitigate the impact of climate change.
ISSN:1895-7455
1895-6572
1895-7455
DOI:10.1007/s11600-022-00956-8