Assessment of the effect of climate change on the health status of Atrak watershed in Northeastern of Iran

In this study, the effect of climate change on the reliability (R el ), resilience (R es ), and vulnerability (V ul ) has been evaluated in Atrak watershed located in northeastern Iran. Monthly rainfall data were used for 28 weather stations. The precipitation data of the Canadian Earth System Model...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Arabian journal of geosciences 2022, Vol.15 (24), Article 1745
Main Authors: Chamani, Reza, Vafakhah, Mehdi, Tavosi, Mohammad, Zare, Somayeh
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Annual rainfall
Climate change
Climate effects
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth science
Earth Sciences
Hydrologic data
Management methods
Original Paper
Precipitation
Rain
Rain water
Rainwater recovery systems
Reliability analysis
Standardized precipitation index
Vulnerability
Water harvesting
Water use
Watersheds
Weather stations
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Summary:In this study, the effect of climate change on the reliability (R el ), resilience (R es ), and vulnerability (V ul ) has been evaluated in Atrak watershed located in northeastern Iran. Monthly rainfall data were used for 28 weather stations. The precipitation data of the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) for the period 2025–2075 under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the selected stations were then extracted and downscaled by the delta method. Next, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was determined for the baseline and future periods at a 1-month time scale. To determine the health status of the watershed, R el R es V ul were calculated in temporal and spatial scales. The results showed that rainfall in both periods (2025–2050 and 2051–2075) will be decreased − 1.45 and − 2.9% under RCP4.5, respectively, and will be decreased 0.56% in the period 2025–2050 and will be increased 5.18% in the period 2051–2075 under RCP8.5. In terms of mean annual rainfall, rainfall will be decreased − 2.20% under RCP4.5 climate scenario and will be increased 2.26% under RCP8.5. Mean indices of Rel, Res, and Vul for the near period (2025–2050) under RCP4.5 climate scenario will be 180, 52.5, and 33.33, respectively, and under RCP8.5 climate scenario, 200, − 2.50, and − 11.11%. In the far period (2051–2075), under RCP4.5 climate scenario, these indices will be 200, 25, and 22.22%, respectively, and under RCP8.5 climate scenario, will be 212, − 10, and 38.89%, respectively. The average changes in the health index also show that the health index under RCP4.5 for the near and far periods and the whole period increase 66.67, 58.33, and 62.5%, respectively. While under RCP8.5, this index increased 37.50, 54.17, and 45.83%, respectively. According to the results of the present study, it is suggested different management methods such as rainwater harvesting, use of low water use species and increasing production efficiency in agriculture should be considered.
ISSN:1866-7511
1866-7538
DOI:10.1007/s12517-022-11027-z