Toward Next‐Generation Lava Flow Forecasting: Development of a Fast, Physics‐Based Lava Propagation Model

During effusive volcanic crises, the eruption and propagation of lava flows pose a significant hazard to nearby populations, homes, and infrastructure. Consequently, timely lava flow forecasts are a critical need for volcano observatory and emergency management operations. Previous lava flow modelin...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of geophysical research. Solid earth 2022-10, Vol.127 (10), p.n/a
Main Authors: Hyman, David M. R., Dietterich, Hannah R., Patrick, Matthew R.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Basalt
Computer applications
Cooling
depth‐averaged model
Emergencies
Emergency management
Emergency preparedness
Emergency procedures
Energy conservation
finite volume
Forecasting
Geophysics
Infrastructure
Laminar flow
Lava
Lava flows
Lava2d
Mathematical models
Model testing
Modelling
Observatories
Physics
Populations
Prandtl number
Propagation
Rheological properties
Rheology
Temperature differences
Temperature gradients
Testing
Thermal stratification
Tracking
Volcanic activity
Volcanic eruption effects
Volcanic eruptions
Volcanoes
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Summary:During effusive volcanic crises, the eruption and propagation of lava flows pose a significant hazard to nearby populations, homes, and infrastructure. Consequently, timely lava flow forecasts are a critical need for volcano observatory and emergency management operations. Previous lava flow modeling tools are typically either too slow to produce timely forecasts, or are fast, but lack critical aspects of lava physics or important forecasting outputs. In particular, the strong thermal stratification present in laminar, high‐Prandtl number flows has generally been neglected. Bulk rheological changes have previously been computed from cell‐averaged temperatures, assuming that the flow is thermally mixed. Here, we detail the development and initial testing of Lava2d, a new two‐dimensional depth‐averaged finite volume model of lava flow propagation over natural terrain which accounts for bulk rheological changes due to thermorheological stratification. We use a novel approach to energy conservation based on tracking cooling and solidifying at the flow base and at the moving flow surface, allowing for the estimation of more realistic vertical thermorheological profiles, while maintaining computational efficiency, producing very timely model runs. We validate our approach with three examples: comparison with theoretical propagation of crust‐dominated lava flows, comparison with a large‐scale molten basalt experiment from the Syracuse University Lava Project, and efficiency testing and comparison with the initial phase of the 1984 Mauna Loa lava flows. Our model is shown to produce rapid, realistic forecasts, making it a good candidate for operationalization in active volcanic regions such as in Hawai'i. Plain Language Summary During volcanic eruptions, lava flows pose a significant hazard to nearby populations, homes, and infrastructure. During lava flow crises, forecasts of lava flow advance, coverage, and arrival time can significantly help volcano observatories and emergency managers perform their operations. The most realistic forecasts are made from simulations of lava flows, which include a model of how lava flows cool and solidify as they travel. Although some models use realistic cooling, they are generally too slow to be used in emergencies. Most previous lava flow models have instead estimated this cooling by assuming that temperature within a lava flow does not vary significantly with depth; however, this assumption is not realistic. Real lavas are mu
ISSN:2169-9313
2169-9356
DOI:10.1029/2022JB024998