VEC model of water infrastructure in Los Angeles: implications for community resilience and recovery

Los Angeles is a community that is susceptible to earthquakes, wildfires and other disasters that may cause water utility disruption. This study estimates water production in Los Angeles using a vector autoregressive error correction model (VECM). The model captures the short- and long-run dynamics...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2022-10, Vol.114 (1), p.629-643
Main Authors: Pastor, Daniel J., Ewing, Bradley T.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Autoregressive models
Civil Engineering
Disasters
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earthquakes
Economic conditions
Economic systems
Employment
Environmental Management
Error correction
Gasoline
Geophysics/Geodesy
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Hydrogeology
Labour
Natural disasters
Natural Hazards
Original Paper
Recovery
Resilience
Seismic activity
Transportation networks
Urban environments
Water
Water supply systems
Water utilities
Wildfires
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Summary:Los Angeles is a community that is susceptible to earthquakes, wildfires and other disasters that may cause water utility disruption. This study estimates water production in Los Angeles using a vector autoregressive error correction model (VECM). The model captures the short- and long-run dynamics among water production and elements of the economic system related to the labor market, built environment, energy and transportation networks in the Los Angeles area. We find evidence of a single cointegrating relationship between water production as measured by total monthly potable in gallons, employment, the S&P/Case-Shiller CA-Los Angeles Home Price index, and retail unleaded gasoline prices. VECM results suggest that after a shock that disrupts the equilibrium, such as an earthquake, system moves about 24% toward eliminating the disequilibrium in the first month, with a return to equilibrium in about 4–5 months. The results have implications both domestically and internationally for understanding a community’s resilience and recovery to shocks and, thus, may shed light on how natural disasters affect a local economy.
ISSN:0921-030X
1573-0840
DOI:10.1007/s11069-022-05404-w