Predicting Near‐Term Effects of Climate Change on Nitrogen Transport to Chesapeake Bay

Understanding effects of climate change on nitrogen fate and transport in the environment is critical to nutrient management. We used climate projections within a previously calibrated spatially referenced regression (SPARROW) model to predict effects of expected climate change over 1995 through 202...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of the American Water Resources Association 2022-08, Vol.58 (4), p.578-596
Main Authors: Ator, Scott, Schwarz, Gregory E., Sekellick, Andrew J., Bhatt, Gopal
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Ammonia
Climate change
Climate effects
Climate prediction
climate variability/change
Denitrification
estuaries
geospatial analysis
Nitrogen
Nonpoint source pollution
Nonpoint sources
Nutrient transport
nutrients
planning
Regression models
Rivers
Runoff
Stream discharge
Stream flow
Streams
Temperature
Transport
transport and fate
Tributaries
Volatilization
Water pollution
Watersheds
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Summary:Understanding effects of climate change on nitrogen fate and transport in the environment is critical to nutrient management. We used climate projections within a previously calibrated spatially referenced regression (SPARROW) model to predict effects of expected climate change over 1995 through 2025 on total nitrogen fluxes to Chesapeake Bay and in watershed streams. Assuming nitrogen inputs and other watershed conditions remain at 2012 levels, effects of increasing temperature, runoff, streamflow, and stream velocity expected between 1995 and 2025 will include an estimated net 6.5% decline in annual nitrogen delivery to the bay from its watershed. This predicted decline is attributable to declines in the delivery of nitrogen from upland nonpoint sources to streams due to predicted warmer temperatures. Such temperature‐driven declines in the delivery of nitrogen to streams more than offset predicted increased delivery to and within streams due to increased runoff and streamflow and may be attributable to increasing rates of denitrification or ammonia volatilization or to changes in plant phenology. Predicted climate‐driven declines in nitrogen flux are generally similar across the watershed but vary slightly among major nonpoint source sectors and tributary watersheds. Nitrogen contributions to the bay from point sources are not affected by temperature‐driven changes in delivery from uplands and are therefore predicted to increase slightly between 1995 and 2025. Research Impact Statement: Assuming nitrogen inputs and other watershed conditions remain constant, near‐term effects of climate change may include decreased delivery of nitrogen to Chesapeake Bay from its watershed.
ISSN:1093-474X
1752-1688
DOI:10.1111/1752-1688.13017