Model for prognostic of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized COVID-19 cases with correct demography evolution

The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients of COVID-19 epidemic, including the effect of demographic variation of population. It is shown that considering a pop...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:arXiv.org 2022-06
Main Authors: Selva Castañeda, Antonio Rafael, Ramirez-Torres, Erick Eduardo, Valdés-García, Luis Eugenio, Morandeira-Padrón, Hilda María, Diana Sedal Yanez, Montijano, Juan I, Luis Enrique Bergues Cabrales
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Asymptomatic
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Demography
Disease control
Disease transmission
Epidemics
Evolution
Infectious diseases
Mathematical models
Population growth
Viral diseases
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Summary:The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients of COVID-19 epidemic, including the effect of demographic variation of population. It is shown that considering a population growth proportional to the total population leads to solutions with a qualitative behaviour different from the behaviour obtained in many studies, where constant growth ratio is assumed. An exhaustive theoretical study is carried out and the basic reproduction number \(R_0\) is computed from the model equations. It is proved that if \(R_0
ISSN:2331-8422
DOI:10.48550/arxiv.2206.03806