Enhancing policy realism in energy system optimization models: Politically feasible decarbonization pathways for the United States

In this paper, we adopt a novel approach to integrate political-organizational and techno-economic considerations to analyze decarbonization pathways for the United States. To do so, we first construct three portfolios of granular policies that target greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions in the...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Energy policy 2022-02, Vol.161, p.112754, Article 112754
Main Authors: Zhu, Qianru, Leibowicz, Benjamin D., Busby, Joshua W., Shidore, Sarang, Adelman, David E., Olmstead, Sheila M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Ambition
Buildings
Climate change mitigation
Climate policy
Decarbonization
Economic analysis
Electricity
Electricity generation
Electrification
Emissions
Energy policy
Energy system modeling
Environmental policy
Greenhouse effect
Greenhouse gas emissions
Greenhouse gases
Heavy vehicles
Industrial production
Natural gas
New technology
Optimization
Optimization models
Petroleum industry
Policies
Political culture
Political factors
Politics
Portfolios
TIMES model
Vehicles
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Summary:In this paper, we adopt a novel approach to integrate political-organizational and techno-economic considerations to analyze decarbonization pathways for the United States. To do so, we first construct three portfolios of granular policies that target greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions in the electricity, transportation, and buildings sectors, which we deem politically feasible under different federal political contexts. We then implement sectoral policy portfolios in the US-TIMES model and compare them to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and an 80% system-wide decarbonization scenario that uses stylized emissions constraints to produce the least-cost decarbonization pathway. Our findings reveal that greater political alignment enables electrification to play a more significant role as a central component of decarbonization. Renewable electricity generation and light-duty vehicle electrification both expand. Moreover, if the political environment allows more ambitious climate policies, deeper decarbonization can actually be achieved at a lower average abatement cost because more economically efficient policy instruments become politically feasible. However, our results indicate that none of our sectoral policy portfolios is sufficient to reduce system-wide GHG emissions by 80% by 2050. Major emissions sources for which new technologies and policies will be needed include heavy-duty vehicles, aviation, industrial production, and natural gas use in buildings. •Represent granular GHG reduction policies in the US-TIMES model to enhance policy realism.•Construct portfolios of sectoral climate policies deemed politically feasible in different contexts.•Sectoral policy portfolios are insufficient to reduce economy-wide emissions by 80% by 2050.•Technology and policy gaps exist for heavy-duty vehicles, aviation, industry, natural gas in buildings.•Sectoral climate policy approach is more costly than the ideal pathway, but net benefits are still likely.
ISSN:0301-4215
1873-6777
DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112754