Laws, melodies, and the paradox of predictability

If the laws of nature are deterministic, then it seems possible that a Laplacean intelligence that knows the initial conditions and the laws would be able to accurately predict everything that will ever happen. However, it would be easy to construct a counterpredictive device that falsifies any reve...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Synthese (Dordrecht) 2022-02, Vol.200 (1), p.40, Article 40
Main Author: Dorst, Chris
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Education
Epistemology
Hume, David (1711-1776)
Intelligence
Laplace, Pierre-Simon de (1749-1827)
Law
Logic
Metaphysics
Nature
Original Research
Philosophy
Philosophy of Language
Philosophy of Science
Statistical prediction
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Summary:If the laws of nature are deterministic, then it seems possible that a Laplacean intelligence that knows the initial conditions and the laws would be able to accurately predict everything that will ever happen. However, it would be easy to construct a counterpredictive device that falsifies any revealed prediction about its future behavior. What would then occur if a Laplacean intelligence encountered a counterpredictive device? This is the paradox of predictability . A number of philosophers have proposed solutions to it, though part of my aim here is to argue that the paradox is more pernicious than has thus far been appreciated, and therefore that extant solutions are inadequate. My broader aim is to argue that the paradox motivates Humeanism about laws of nature.
ISSN:0039-7857
1573-0964
DOI:10.1007/s11229-022-03595-0