Modelling diapause termination and phenology of the Japanese beetle, Popillia japonica

We developed a mechanistic, stage-structured model simulating the phenology of Popillia japonica . The model simulates the influence of soil temperature on the larval diapause termination and on the development rate function of post-overwintering larvae and pupae. Model parameters are estimated bas...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of pest science 2022-03, Vol.95 (2), p.869-880
Main Authors: Gilioli, Gianni, Sperandio, Giorgio, Simonetto, Anna, Colturato, Michele, Battisti, Andrea, Mori, Nicola, Ciampitti, Mariangela, Cavagna, Beniamino, Bianchi, Alessandro, Gervasio, Paola
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agriculture
Biomedical and Life Sciences
Datasets
Developmental stages
Diapause
Diapause termination
Ecology
Entomology
Forestry
Larvae
Life Sciences
Mathematical models
Monitoring
Original Paper
Overwintering
Parameter estimation
Parameterization
Phenology
Plant Pathology
Plant Sciences
Popillia japonica
Process parameters
Resampling
Soil temperature
Time series
Uncertainty
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:We developed a mechanistic, stage-structured model simulating the phenology of Popillia japonica . The model simulates the influence of soil temperature on the larval diapause termination and on the development rate function of post-overwintering larvae and pupae. Model parameters are estimated based on literature evidence for pupae development and on a parameterisation process that allows estimating parameters for larval diapause termination and for the development rate function (and the related uncertainty) of post-overwintering larvae. Data used for model parameterisation and validation refer to time-series adult trap catches collected during the P. japonica monitoring programme performed by the Phytosanitary Service of Lombardy Region within the infested area in Lombardy (Italy) from 2015 to 2019. A total of 12 randomly selected locations are used to estimate biologically realistic model parameters (parameterisation dataset). We applied a Jackknife nonparametric resampling procedure on the parameterisation dataset to quantify uncertainty associated with parameters’ estimates. Parameterised model is then validated on time-series adult trap catches data referring to a different set of 12 randomly selected locations (validation dataset) surveyed in Lombardy. The model successfully predicted the beginning of adult emergence and the overall curve of adult emergence in the validation dataset. The model presented can support the definition of the best timing for the implementation of monitoring and control activities for the local and the area-wide management of P. japonica .
ISSN:1612-4758
1612-4766
DOI:10.1007/s10340-021-01434-8