Climate-informed urban design via probabilistic acceptability criterion and Sharpe ratio selection

We develop a new framework for selecting an urban design which performs best from an Outdoor Thermal Comfort (OTC) perspective, while taking into account the uncertainty in the OTC preference of individuals. To this end, we first present and develop the notion of Probabilistic Acceptability Criterio...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environment, development and sustainability development and sustainability, 2022, Vol.24 (1), p.617-645
Main Author: Nevat, Ido
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Acceptability
Acceptance criteria
Binomial distribution
Classification
Design
Earth and Environmental Science
Ecology
Economic Geology
Economic Growth
Environment
Environmental Economics
Environmental Management
Over the counter sales
Probability
Random variables
Regression analysis
Statistical analysis
Statistical methods
Sustainable Development
Thermal comfort
Uncertainty
Urban areas
Urban planning
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Summary:We develop a new framework for selecting an urban design which performs best from an Outdoor Thermal Comfort (OTC) perspective, while taking into account the uncertainty in the OTC preference of individuals. To this end, we first present and develop the notion of Probabilistic Acceptability Criterion (PAC) which is a new method to quantify people’s satisfaction of OTC values, based on data collected from a survey. We develop the PAC for both regression and classification models which are most common statistical analysis methods in the literature. Next, based on the PAC, we develop a new approach to scoring each of the urban designs, based on Binary Probabilistic Impact Function , which extends the widely used deterministic impact function . We show that the score is a random variable which follows a Poisson-Binomial distribution and characterise its parameters. We then use those results and present a new approach for scoring of the urban designs that is based on the Sharpe ratio , which is a widely used metric in financial applications. Our framework is the first model which provides urban designers the ability to evaluate the quality of their urban designs from an OTC point of view, while taking the uncertainty into account in a holistic and rigorous way. We illustrate our framework by applying it to a real case study in Singapore.
ISSN:1387-585X
1573-2975
DOI:10.1007/s10668-021-01460-7