Bias Testing of the Public Safety Assessment: Error Rate Balance Between Whites and Blacks for New Arrests

This study is an evaluation of predictive bias by race when using a pretrial risk assessment. We use data from Kentucky from July 2013 through December 2014 (n = 164,597) to evaluate differences across five error measures. Pretrial risk assessments were developed to respond to growing awareness abou...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Crime and delinquency 2021-11, Vol.67 (12), p.2088-2113
Main Authors: DeMichele, Matthew, Baumgartner, Peter
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Arrests
Bias
Black people
Black white differences
Debates
Decision making
Evaluation
Low income groups
Predictions
Pretrial
Public safety
Race
Racial bias
Racism
Risk assessment
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Summary:This study is an evaluation of predictive bias by race when using a pretrial risk assessment. We use data from Kentucky from July 2013 through December 2014 (n = 164,597) to evaluate differences across five error measures. Pretrial risk assessments were developed to respond to growing awareness about how intuitive processes were leading to disparate impact for people of color and the poor. This study contributes data to the debate about the merits of pretrial risk assessments. The crux of this debate is the lack of standards about how to assess predictive bias. Our analyses demonstrate that a more nuanced understanding of pretrial outcomes and decision making are needed before fully understanding the strengths and weaknesses of pretrial risk assessments.
ISSN:0011-1287
1552-387X
DOI:10.1177/0011128720965116