A Modelling Approach to Forecast the Effect of Climate Change on the Tagus-Segura Interbasin Water Transfer

A Modelling Approach to Forecast the Effect of Climate Change on the Tagus-Segura Interbasin Water Transfer

This study was conducted in the upper Tagus River basin (UTRB), whose available water resources are partially transferred from the Entrepeñas and Buendía reservoirs after local needs satisfaction to the Segura River basin using the Tagus-Segura water transfer (TSWT), the largest hydraulic infrastruc...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Water resources management 2021-09, Vol.35 (11), p.3791-3808
Main Authors: Senent-Aparicio, Javier, López-Ballesteros, Adrián, Cabezas, Francisco, Pérez-Sánchez, Julio, Molina-Navarro, Eugenio
Format: Article
Language:eng
Subjects:
Atmospheric Sciences
Bathymetry
Civil Engineering
Climate change
Climate effects
Climate models
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Environment
Environmental impact
Evaporation
Evaporation rate
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Hydrogeology
Hydrology
Hydrology/Water Resources
Reservoirs
River basins
Rivers
Water resources
Water transfer
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Summary:This study was conducted in the upper Tagus River basin (UTRB), whose available water resources are partially transferred from the Entrepeñas and Buendía reservoirs after local needs satisfaction to the Segura River basin using the Tagus-Segura water transfer (TSWT), the largest hydraulic infrastructure in Spain. This study evaluates the climate change impact on the TSWT by considering future evaporation rates and bathymetric changes in the Entrepeñas and Buendía reservoirs. The findings of this study indicate a consistent decline in precipitation and an increase in temperature and evaporation under all climate impact scenarios. Consequently, inflows to the reservoirs will decline by 19% (RCP 4.5) and 53% (RCP 8.5) for 2070–2099, which could reduce water volumes that could be transferred to the Segura basin by more than 60%. The simulation of the TSWT operation rules, taking into account the impact of future evaporation and bathymetric changes, demonstrates an additional increase in reductions of water transfer of around 4%, which reveals the need to consider these effects in hydrological planning.
ISSN:0920-4741
1573-1650