Forecasting of Bandar Lampung's Population Using Growth Mathematical Models

This paper investigates the projection on the population of Bandar Lampung City in 2017 - 2030 through a mathematical modeling approach. Here, we use four growth mathematical models particularly simple linear regression model, exponential model, logistic model and demographic transition model. The b...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of physics. Conference series 2019-10, Vol.1338 (1), p.12037
Main Authors: Nuryaman, A, Pamungkas, M A A F, Saidi, S
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Demographics
Forecasting
Logit models
Mathematical analysis
Mathematical models
Physics
Regression models
Citations: Items that this one cites
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:This paper investigates the projection on the population of Bandar Lampung City in 2017 - 2030 through a mathematical modeling approach. Here, we use four growth mathematical models particularly simple linear regression model, exponential model, logistic model and demographic transition model. The best approximation is chosen based on the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) value of the four models compared to the actual data. By using population data from 1995 - 2011, the results show that the model which gives the smallest MAPE is exponential model and the largest MAPE is demographic transition model.
ISSN:1742-6588
1742-6596
DOI:10.1088/1742-6596/1338/1/012037