Simulation and estimation of future precipitation changes in arid regions: a case study of Xinjiang, Northwest China

Precipitation is critical for maintaining the stability of an ecosystem, especially in arid regions. This study primarily focuses on climatic changes during present (from 1985 to 2005) and future (from 2040 to 2059) periods in Xinjiang, Northwest China. In this study, the Weather Research and Foreca...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climatic change 2021-08, Vol.167 (3-4), Article 43
Main Authors: Du, Haoyang, Zhou, Chen, Tang, Haoqing, Jin, Xiaolong, Chen, Dengshuai, Jiang, Penghui, Li, Manchun
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Annual precipitation
Arid regions
Arid zones
Atmospheric precipitations
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climate models
Climate prediction
Climate system
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Future climates
Future precipitation
Heavy precipitation
Mountainous areas
Precipitation
Rainfall
Relative humidity
Research facilities
Seasonal precipitation
Spring
Spring (season)
Stability
Weather forecasting
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Summary:Precipitation is critical for maintaining the stability of an ecosystem, especially in arid regions. This study primarily focuses on climatic changes during present (from 1985 to 2005) and future (from 2040 to 2059) periods in Xinjiang, Northwest China. In this study, the Weather Research and Forecasting model is implemented in Xinjiang to efficiently predict the future climate. Moreover, the National Climate Research Center Community Climate System Model version 4 is employed for the mid-21 st century under representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5 (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). Our results indicate that the amount of annual precipitation will increase in the future under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Xinjiang, especially in mountainous areas. The increase in precipitation is predicted to be much smaller under RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5, except in Southern Xinjiang. Moreover, the increasing precipitation predicted in Xinjiang implies that the current humid and warm conditions will persist, thereby further indicating that Xinjiang is still currently suffering from a dry climate. The largest increase in seasonal precipitation is predicted to occur in spring and summer in Tianshan and Northern Xinjiang, whereas this phenomenon is predicted to occur in spring and winter in Southern Xinjiang. In addition, it is predicted that daily heavy precipitation events will occur more frequently in various subregions of Xinjiang, although light rain events will remain dominant. Finally, the relative humidity is closely related to the changes in annual and seasonal precipitation.
ISSN:0165-0009
1573-1480
DOI:10.1007/s10584-021-03192-z