Quantitative estimation method for urban areas to develop compact cities in view of unprecedented population decline

In Japan, high economic growth after the war brought about disorderly urban sprawl. The government then enforced an “area division system,” which divided city planning areas into “urbanization promotion areas” (UPA) and “urbanization control areas” (UCA). This system maintains the existing UPA size...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Cities 2021-07, Vol.114, p.103151, Article 103151
Main Authors: Miyauchi, Takashi, Setoguchi, Tsuyoshi, Ito, Takumi
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Appropriateness
Cities
Cities with population decline
Compact cities
Criteria
Economic growth
Estimation
Finance
Housing
Local government
Population
Population decline
Population growth
Public finance
Shrinking urban areas
Urban areas
Urban growth
Urban planning
Urban warfare
Urbanization
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Summary:In Japan, high economic growth after the war brought about disorderly urban sprawl. The government then enforced an “area division system,” which divided city planning areas into “urbanization promotion areas” (UPA) and “urbanization control areas” (UCA). This system maintains the existing UPA size almost unconditionally and, in addition, aims to incorporate parts of UCA into UPA by the size corresponding to new housing demands, which is based on an incremental of the future population prediction. Therefore, there was no need for an objective judgment criterion to verify that the total size of the expanded UPA was suitable for the population size; there are also no related previous studies. Nevertheless, this was not recognized as a major problem when local government finances were abundant due to population increase. However, in Japan, the arrival of an era of unprecedented population decline is certain; maintaining a huge number of urban facilities at the current UPA size could seriously damage local government finance. Shrinking UPAs are an urgent issue and it is time to seriously discuss the appropriate UPA size for the size of the population. In this study, we developed a quantitative estimation method of UPA size, commensurate with population size, through regression analysis of the relationship between population and UPA size. This estimation method is based on the strong correlation between population and UPA size, therefore it can be used as a judgment criterion for local governments to reach appropriate UPA sizes when considering compact cities. •Urban size estimation method for compact cities in depopulation era was developed.•Relationship between population and urban size was clarified by regression analysis.•Appropriate urban size commensurate with population can be estimated quantitatively.
ISSN:0264-2751
1873-6084
DOI:10.1016/j.cities.2021.103151