Measuring ecosystem services based on government intentions for future land use in Hubei Province: implications for sustainable landscape management

Context Exploring how ecosystem service values ( ESV ) are likely to change based on government intentions to develop and protect land is essential for sustainable landscape management. Objectives (1) Simulate land use change under future baseline (BAS), resource consumption (CON), and resource prot...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Landscape ecology 2021-07, Vol.36 (7), p.2025-2042
Main Authors: Jin, Gui, Chen, Kun, Liao, Tian, Zhang, Lei, Najmuddin, Omaid
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Biomedical and Life Sciences
Cultivated lands
Ecology
Ecosystem management
Ecosystem services
Ecosystems
Environmental changes
Environmental Management
Equivalence
Expropriation
Grasslands
Land use
Landscape Ecology
Landscape/Regional and Urban Planning
Life Sciences
Nature Conservation
Pricing
Research Article
Resource consumption
Risk management
Sustainability
Sustainable Development
Sustainable use
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Summary:Context Exploring how ecosystem service values ( ESV ) are likely to change based on government intentions to develop and protect land is essential for sustainable landscape management. Objectives (1) Simulate land use change under future baseline (BAS), resource consumption (CON), and resource protection (PRO) scenarios, based on forecasted land expropriation prices implemented by the government of Hubei Province. (2) Measure changes in ecosystem services influenced by future land use. (3) Provide sustainable landscape management strategies to control the risk of ecosystem service loss. Methods This research couples Computable General Equilibrium of Land Use Change and Dynamics of Land System (CGELUC-DLS) models to simulate land use changes and calculated ESV using the equivalent factor method. Results (1) Predicted areas of cultivated land, forest, and grassland throughout Hubei Province declined under the three scenarios between 2015 and 2025. (2) Compared with 2015, equivalent values per unit area of ecosystem services ( ESV e ) decreased by 2.27%, 4.01%, and 1.67% in 2025 under BAS, CON, and PRO scenarios, respectively. The future trend in ESV e reduction across western Hubei Province did abate in the PRO scenario. (3) Reasonably adjusting land expropriation prices is a regulatory approach that can serve to strengthen sustainable landscape management in China. Conclusions ESV will inevitably decline in the future due to continuous land use changes across Hubei Province. The government should implement diversified strategies to control ecosystem services loss, including adjusting land expropriation prices, adopting regional differentiated management strategies, and implementing intensive but sustainable land use policies.
ISSN:0921-2973
1572-9761
DOI:10.1007/s10980-020-01116-3