The Impact of Demographic Changes on CO2 Emission Profiles: Cases of East Asian Countries

The demographic changes of East Asian countries have accelerated in recent years. With consideration of the linkage between human behavior and carbon emissions, it is necessary to consider demographic characteristics for the CO2 emission projections of these countries. This study examines how change...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Sustainability 2021-01, Vol.13 (2), p.677
Main Authors: Jung, Tae Yong, Kim, Yong-Gun, Moon, Jongwoo
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age
Aging
Carbon
Carbon dioxide
Decomposition
Demographics
Econometrics
Economic conditions
Emission analysis
Emissions
Energy consumption
Fertility
GDP
Gross Domestic Product
Households
Labor
Labor force
Labor supply
Per capita
Population
Population studies
Sustainability
Trends
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:The demographic changes of East Asian countries have accelerated in recent years. With consideration of the linkage between human behavior and carbon emissions, it is necessary to consider demographic characteristics for the CO2 emission projections of these countries. This study examines how changes in the demographic structure affect the emission projections of three East Asian countries (South Korea, China, and Japan) by comparing two different vintages of population projections. The study constructed a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and applied the most up-to-date dataset of population prospects, GTAP 10, and the labor force participation rate. By comparing UN2010 and UN2019 projections, the study examined the impact of demographic changes on CO2 emission profiles of the three East Asian countries. The simulation result showed that GDP, which represents economic activity along with the population, is the direct channel of CO2 emission projections. Moreover, the scenario analysis suggested the population factor as one of the main drivers of the CO2 emission projection and a clear positive relationship between GDP and CO2 emissions, though CO2 emissions are generally inelastic in response to a GDP decrease in the three East Asian countries. The finding indirectly implies that not only the size of the population but also demographic composition should be considered to project CO2 emissions, as the labor participation rate is an important factor to determine the production function.
ISSN:2071-1050
2071-1050
DOI:10.3390/su13020677