Winter temperatures predominate in spring phenological responses to warming

Research on woody plant species highlights three major cues that shape spring phenological events: chilling, forcing and photoperiod. Increasing research on the phenological impacts of climate change has led to debate over whether chilling and/or photoperiod cues have slowed phenological responses t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature climate change 2020-12, Vol.10 (12), p.1137-1142
Main Authors: Ettinger, A. K., Chamberlain, C. J., Morales-Castilla, I., Buonaiuto, D. M., Flynn, D. F. B., Savas, T., Samaha, J. A., Wolkovich, E. M.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Anthropogenic climate changes
Anthropogenic factors
Chill strengthening
Chilling
Climate change
Cooling
Environmental changes
Environmental conditions
Environmental impact
Flowers & plants
Global warming
Human influences
Phenology
Photoperiods
Species
Spring
Spring (season)
Stalling
Winter temperatures
Woody plants
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Summary:Research on woody plant species highlights three major cues that shape spring phenological events: chilling, forcing and photoperiod. Increasing research on the phenological impacts of climate change has led to debate over whether chilling and/or photoperiod cues have slowed phenological responses to warming in recent years. Here we use a global meta-analysis of all published experiments to test the relative effects of these cues. Almost all species show strong responses to all three cues, with chilling being the strongest and photoperiod the weakest. Forecasts from our findings for Central Europe suggest that spring phenology will continue to advance, as stalling effects of chilling generally appear above 4 °C warming in this region. Our results unify both sides of the debate over phenological cues: while all species may respond to all cues strongly in experimental conditions, in current environmental conditions the dominant signal of climate change is from increased forcing.Spring phenology is influenced by chilling, forcing and photoperiod cues; the phenological response to warming from anthropogenic climate change may be slowed by chilling or photoperiod. Plant species respond to all cues in experiments but under environmental conditions, forcing predominates.
ISSN:1758-678X
1758-6798
DOI:10.1038/s41558-020-00917-3