Causes of the Widespread 2019–2020 Australian Bushfire Season

The recent bushfires (2019–2020) in New South Wales (NSW) Australia were catastrophic by claiming human and animal lives, affecting ecosystems, destroying infrastructure, and more. Recent studies have investigated relationships between hydroclimatic signals and past bushfires, and very recently, a f...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Earth's future 2020-11, Vol.8 (11), p.n/a
Main Authors: Deb, Proloy, Moradkhani, Hamid, Abbaszadeh, Peyman, Kiem, Anthony S., Engström, Johanna, Keellings, David, Sharma, Ashish
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
2019–2020 Australian bushfires
Disasters
Drought
eucalyptus
Fire protection
Fuels
Geomorphology
Heat waves
Humidity
Land cover
Land use
live and dead fuel moisture
Moisture content
Precipitation
Regions
Relative humidity
Seasons
Soil moisture
Soil surfaces
Statistical methods
surface soil moisture
Variables
Water content
Wildfires
Wind speed
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Summary:The recent bushfires (2019–2020) in New South Wales (NSW) Australia were catastrophic by claiming human and animal lives, affecting ecosystems, destroying infrastructure, and more. Recent studies have investigated relationships between hydroclimatic signals and past bushfires, and very recently, a few commentary papers claimed drought and fuel moisture content as the probable causes for the widespread 2019–2020 bushfires. Therefore, in this study, a novel work of encompassing a wide range of factors attributing to the recent bushfires is presented. Empirical evidence‐based statistical methods are used to identify the hydroclimatic variables and geomorphic characteristics contributing to the 2019–2020 bushfires. The results highlight that ongoing drought, surface soil moisture (SSM), wind speed (WS10), relative humidity (RH), heat waves (HW), dead and live fuel moisture, and certain land cover types create favorable conditions for fire ignition and aid in fire propagation in different regions of the NSW state. The findings suggest that accounting for the above‐identified variables in bushfire prediction and monitoring system are crucial in avoiding such catastrophes in the future. The overarching application of this study is developing robust and more versatile fire protection planning and management. Plain Language Summary Since the 2019–2020 Australian bushfires were catastrophic in terms of burnt area and severity, a detailed analysis of the primary causes is crucial. In this paper, several probable causes are tested statistically to establish their relationship with the burnt area. The results indicate that the ongoing drought, surface soil moisture, wind speed, relative humidity, heat waves, dead and live fuel moisture, and land cover with certain vegetation (particularly native eucalyptus and grazing land) are the primary causes of the widespread bushfire. These results are extremely critical in updating the current bushfire planning and management. Key Points Empirical evidence‐based statistical approach is employed to assess the causes of the 2019–2020 bushfire in the NSW state of Australia Drought, soil moisture, wind speed, relative humidity, heat waves, fuel moisture, and certain land cover types drive bushfires Slope did not contribute in bushfire occurrence and propagation
ISSN:2328-4277
2328-4277
DOI:10.1029/2020EF001671