Ultra-high resolution regional climate projections for assessing changes in hydrological extremes and underlying uncertainties

The frequency and intensity of extreme hydrological events (droughts and floods) have been increasing over the past few decades, which has been posing a threat to water security and agriculture production. Thus, projecting the future evolution of hydrological extremes plays a crucial role in sustain...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climate dynamics 2020-10, Vol.55 (7-8), p.2031-2051
Main Authors: Qing, Y., Wang, S., Zhang, B., Wang, Y.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural development
Agricultural management
Agricultural production
Agriculture
Assessments
China
Climate change
Climatic changes
Climatology
Convection
Drought
Drought characteristics
Droughts
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Environmental assessment
Environmental risk
Extreme weather
Flood forecasting
Flood risk
Floods
Geophysics/Geodesy
High resolution
Hydrologic drought
Hydrology
Influence
Numerical weather forecasting
Oceanography
Parameter uncertainty
Regional climates
Resolution
Risk assessment
River basins
River discharge
River flow
Rivers
Security
Sustainable agriculture
Sustainable development
Water management
Water security
Weather forecasting
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Summary:The frequency and intensity of extreme hydrological events (droughts and floods) have been increasing over the past few decades, which has been posing a threat to water security and agriculture production. Thus, projecting the future evolution of hydrological extremes plays a crucial role in sustainable water management and agriculture development in a changing climate. In this study, we develop the high-resolution projections of multidimensional drought characteristics and flood risks using the convection-permitting Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the horizontal grid spacing of 4 km for the Blanco and Mission River basins over South Texas. Uncertainties in model parameters are addressed explicitly, thereby leading to probabilistic assessments of hydrological extremes. Our findings reveal that the probabilistic multivariate assessments of drought and flood risks can reduce the underestimation and the biased conclusions generated from the univariate assessment. Furthermore, our findings disclose that future droughts are expected to become more severe over South Texas even though the frequency of the occurrence of droughts is projected to decrease, especially for the long-term drought episodes. In addition, South Texas region is expected to experience more floods with an increasing river discharge. Moreover, the Blanco and Mission river basins will suffer from higher flood risks as flood return periods are expected to become longer under climate change.
ISSN:0930-7575
1432-0894
DOI:10.1007/s00382-020-05372-6