Analysis of the Transmissibility Change of 2019-Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia and Its Potential Factors in China from 2019 to 2020

Background. Recently, a large-scale novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) outbreak swept China. As of Feb. 9, 2020, a total of 40,260 patients have been diagnosed with NCP, and 23,589 patients were suspected to have infected by the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which puts forward a great challenge...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:BioMed research international 2020, Vol.2020 (2020), p.1-7
Main Authors: Yang, Huifang, Zhang, Yuhong, Li, Jiangping, Wang, Ruonan, Zhao, Yu, Zhao, Yi
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Basic Reproduction Number
Betacoronavirus - physiology
China
Confidence Intervals
Coronaviridae
Coronavirus Infections - transmission
Coronavirus Infections - virology
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Disease transmission
Epidemics
Humans
Outbreaks
Outflow
Pandemics
Patients
Perceptions
Pneumonia
Pneumonia - virology
Pneumonia, Viral - transmission
Pneumonia, Viral - virology
Prevention
Public awareness
Public health
Reproduction
SARS-CoV-2
Software
Strategy
Time series
Viral diseases
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Summary:Background. Recently, a large-scale novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP) outbreak swept China. As of Feb. 9, 2020, a total of 40,260 patients have been diagnosed with NCP, and 23,589 patients were suspected to have infected by the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19), which puts forward a great challenge for public health and clinical treatment in China. Until now, we are in the high-incidence season of NCP. Thus, the analysis of the transmissibility change of NCP and its potential factors may provide a reliable reference for establishing effective prevention and control strategies. Method. By means of the method of calculating the instantaneous basic reproduction number R0t proposed by Cori et al. (2013), we use R0t to describe the transmissibility change of COVID-19 in China, 2019-2020. In addition, the Baidu Index (BDI) and Baidu Migration Scale (BMS) were selected to measure the public awareness and the effect of Wuhan lockdown (restricted persons in Wuhan outflow from the epidemic area) strategy, respectively. The Granger causality test (GCT) was carried out to explore the association between public awareness, the effect of the Wuhan lockdown strategy, and the transmissibility of COVID-19. Results. The estimated averaged basic reproduction number of NCP in China was 3.44 with 95% CI (2.87, 4.0) during Dec. 8, 2019, to Feb. 9, 2020. The instantaneous basic reproduction numbers (R0t) have two waves and reaching peaks on Jan. 8 and Jan. 27, respectively. After reaching a peak on Jan. 27, R0t showed a continuous decline trend. On Feb. 9, R0t has fallen to 1.68 (95% CI: 1.66, 1.7), but it is still larger than 1. We find a significantly negative association between public awareness and the transmissibility change of COVID-19, with one unit increase in cumulative BDI leading to a decrease of 0.0295% (95% CI: 0.0077, 0.051) R0t. We also find a significantly negative association between the effect of the Wuhan lockdown strategy and the transmissibility change of COVID-19, and a one unit decrease in BMS may lead to a drop of 2.7% (95% CI: 0.382, 4.97) R0t. Conclusion. The current prevention and control measures have effectively reduced the transmissibility of COVID-19; however, R0t is still larger than the threshold 1. The results show that the government adopting the Wuhan lockdown strategy plays an important role in restricting the potential infected persons in Wuhan outflow from the epidemic area and avoiding a nationwide spread by quickly controlling the potentia
ISSN:2314-6133
2314-6141
DOI:10.1155/2020/3842470