Projections of future beach loss along the mediterranean coastline of Egypt due to sea-level rise

•The shoreline recession due to SLR are projected using Bruun rule in 2081–2100 based on the RCP SLR scenarios.•The annual shoreline retreat is projected to range from 0.36 to 0.65 m/yr for the lowest SLR scenario (RCP2.6) and 0.48 to 0.85 m/yr for the worst SLR scenario (RCP8.5) considering local l...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Applied ocean research 2020-01, Vol.94, p.101972, Article 101972
Main Authors: Sharaan, Mahmoud, Udo, Keiko
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Beach erosion
Beach loss
Beaches
Bruun rule
Coastal zone
Coastal zone management
Integrated coastal zone management
Intercomparison
Lakes
Land subsidence
Ratios
Sea level
Sea level changes
Sea level rise
Sediment
Sediments
Shoreline retreat
Subsidence
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Summary:•The shoreline recession due to SLR are projected using Bruun rule in 2081–2100 based on the RCP SLR scenarios.•The annual shoreline retreat is projected to range from 0.36 to 0.65 m/yr for the lowest SLR scenario (RCP2.6) and 0.48 to 0.85 m/yr for the worst SLR scenario (RCP8.5) considering local land subsidence.•Highly vulnerable areas to shoreline recession are EL-Manzala lake coastline, Port Said coastline, and Abo Qir bay coastline respectively. Beach loss and shoreline retreat caused by sea level rise (SLR) is considered one of the most worldwide significant issues. The Mediterranean coastline of Egypt (approximately 1066 km) is likely to face beach erosion, particularly in the low-lying and sandy coastal areas in the future as a direct response to SLR. Consequently, the projection of future shoreline recession and corresponding beach loss due to SLR using the Bruun rule were investigated to assess the proper impacts of SLR on the shoreline recession and beach loss. In addition, the uncertainties ratios associated with SLR scenarios and sediment sizes were assessed. Furthermore, this study investigated the influence of local land subsidence in combination with SLR scenarios on the shoreline recession and associated beach loss along the Nile Delta coastline. The ensemble-mean regional SLR data included representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios and 21 models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The projected shoreline retreats and associated average beach loss in the future 2081–2100 were ranged from 12.6 m and 11.3 km2 to 41.9 m and 19.2 km2 for the ensemble-mean SLR RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. The uncertainty caused by the sediment size of 0.15 to 0.35 mm ranged from 17% to 30% for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. The projected annual shoreline retreats ranged from 0.36 to 0.65 m/yr for the ensemble-mean SLR in combination with local land subsidence for RCP2.6 and 0.48 to 0.85 m/yr for RCP8.5, respectively. Highly vulnerable areas to shoreline recession for SLR and local land subsidence were detected from EL-Manzala lake to Port Said coastlines, Abo Qir bay, from Rosetta to Damietta promontories, and Alexandria coastline. Thus, shoreline retreat and associated beach loss due to SLR is an urgent issue that should be addressed through the integrated coastal zone management strategies of Egypt.
ISSN:0141-1187
1879-1549
DOI:10.1016/j.apor.2019.101972