Underweighting Alternatives and Overconfidence

Much evidence outside the overconfidence literature indicates that confidence in a particular hypothesis is influenced more by evidence for and against that hypothesis than by evidence for and against the alternative. This article focuses on the impact that underweighting the alternative has on over...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Organizational behavior and human decision processes 1997-08, Vol.71 (2), p.141-160
Main Author: McKenzie, Craig R.M
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Biological and medical sciences
Cognition. Intelligence
Confidence
Decision analysis
Decision making. Choice
Fundamental and applied biological sciences. Psychology
Hypotheses
Judgments
Psychology. Psychoanalysis. Psychiatry
Psychology. Psychophysiology
Simulation
Studies
Variance analysis
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:Much evidence outside the overconfidence literature indicates that confidence in a particular hypothesis is influenced more by evidence for and against that hypothesis than by evidence for and against the alternative. This article focuses on the impact that underweighting the alternative has on overconfidence and other related measures. Computer simulations showed that underweighting the alternative is sufficient for producing overconfidence under quite general conditions. In addition, data from two previous empirical studies were reanalyzed. In these simulated medical diagnosis studies, one group of subjects was known to take into account the alternative, and one to underweight it. The pattern of differences between the two groups was similar to the pattern found in the computer simulations where weighting of the alternative was manipulated. Furthermore, encouragement to take into account the alternative had no effect on the former group's behavior, but affected the latter group in a manner predicted by the simulations. Both the simulations and reanalyses provide direct evidence of the effect of underweighting the strength of alternatives on overconfidence.
ISSN:0749-5978
1095-9920
DOI:10.1006/obhd.1997.2716