Effects of climate change on sugarcane production in the state of Paraíba (Brazil): a panel data approach (1990–2015)

Climate change is one of the most relevant challenges faced by contemporary societies. The effects of climate variability emphasize the agricultural vulnerability of a location, especially through the dependence of agriculture on climatic factors. This work analyzed the impacts of climatic elements...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climatic change 2019-05, Vol.154 (1-2), p.195-209
Main Authors: de Medeiros Silva, Wallysson Klebson, de Freitas, Graziela Pinto, Coelho Junior, Luiz Moreira, de Almeida Pinto, Pablo Aurélio Lacerda, Abrahão, Raphael
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agriculture
Atmospheric Sciences
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climate effects
Climate variability
Dependence
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Food processing industry
Longitudinal studies
Municipalities
Probability theory
Rain
Rainfall
Regression analysis
Statistical analysis
Sugarcane
Vulnerability
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Summary:Climate change is one of the most relevant challenges faced by contemporary societies. The effects of climate variability emphasize the agricultural vulnerability of a location, especially through the dependence of agriculture on climatic factors. This work analyzed the impacts of climatic elements on sugarcane production for municipalities of the state of Paraíba, Brazil, from 1990 to 2015. We investigated how the behavior of climatic elements influenced each mesoregion. Through the production function, a regression with panel data was estimated using the pooled, fixed, and random effects models. To verify which model was most appropriate, the Chow, Hausman, Breusch-Pagan, and Wooldridge tests were performed. According to the tests, the most suitable model was the pooled model. The results showed the impacts of climatic parameters on sugarcane production in the municipalities of Paraíba state, Brazil. Rainfall was positively correlated with production, whereas the temperature negatively influenced production. A heterogeneous response of the impacts on the mesoregions was noted, with the municipalities belonging to the mesoregion of Mata Paraibana having a higher probability of producing sugarcane than other mesoregions.
ISSN:0165-0009
1573-1480
DOI:10.1007/s10584-019-02424-7