Do salt marshes survive sea level rise? Modelling wave action, morphodynamics and vegetation dynamics

This paper aims to fundamentally assess the resilience of salt marsh-mudflat systems under sea level rise. We applied an open-source schematized 2D area model (Delft3D) that couples intertidal flow, wave-action, sediment transport, geomorphological development with a population dynamics approach inc...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Environmental modelling & software : with environment data news 2018-11, Vol.109, p.152-166
Main Authors: Best, Ü.S.N., Van der Wegen, M., Dijkstra, J., Willemsen, P.W.J.M., Borsje, B.W., Roelvink, Dano J.A.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accumulation
Bio-geomorphology
Bioaccumulation
Biomass
Drowning
Geomorphology
Levees
Mud-morphodynamics
Mudflats
Research methodology
Resilience
Salt marshes
Sea level
Sea level rise
Sea level rise (SLR)
Sediment concentration
Sediment transport
Sediments
Sustainability
Two dimensional models
Vegetation
Wave action
Waves
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Summary:This paper aims to fundamentally assess the resilience of salt marsh-mudflat systems under sea level rise. We applied an open-source schematized 2D area model (Delft3D) that couples intertidal flow, wave-action, sediment transport, geomorphological development with a population dynamics approach including temporal and spatial growth of vegetation and bio-accumulation. Wave-action maintains a high sediment concentration on the mudflat while the tidal motion transports the sediments within the vegetated marsh areas during flood. The marsh-mudflat system attained dynamic equilibrium within 120 years. Sediment deposition and bio-accumulation within the marsh make the system initially resilient to sea level rise scenarios. However, after 50–60 years the marsh system starts to drown with vegetated-levees being the last surviving features. Biomass accumulation and sediment supply are critical determinants for the marsh drowning rate and survival. Our model methodology can be applied to assess the resilience of vegetated coast lines and combined engineering solutions for long-term sustainability. [Display omitted] •Realistic marsh-mudflat system in near equilibrium within a century (Video 2.6).•Wave action is the primary trigger for sediment supply to the mudflat.•The marsh-mudflat system drowns under sea level rise scenarios.•Drowning depends on spatially and temporally varying morphology.
ISSN:1364-8152
1873-6726
DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2018.08.004